This Market Update is written by our Capital Market specialists each week to bring you insight into what's happening in the market and how it may affect mortgage rates and real estate trends.
Market Commentary:
Interest rates for the week of July 11th to July 17th remained flat.
The Federal Reserve is expected to hold interest rates steady at its upcoming meeting, maintaining the current target range of 4.25%-4.50%. This decision reflects a cautious approach as the Fed monitors the impact of economic data, inflation, and potential fallout from tariff policies. While the Fed anticipates some rate cuts later in the year, possibly two 0.25% cuts, the timing and extent of these cuts remain uncertain.
Experts say average 30-year fixed mortgage rates are likely to stay above 6.5% in the coming months, with a potential for small and temporary dips, not substantial drops. Prospective homebuyers are also contending with a long-standing housing shortage, high home prices and a loss of purchasing power.
Fed Watch: Target rate (in bps) possibilities, according to the CMEGroup (as of 07/17/2025 – 12:00 PM EST):
Market Review: OptimalBlue’s Production Metrics:
Map Shows Cities Where House Prices Are Being Cut the Most - Newsweek
Inflationary Implications
June Y-o-Y inflation was2.7%, up from 2.4% in May, while core CPI rose 2.9%, up from 2.8% in May. Prior to this month, inflation had been on a slow but steady decline. While the evidence is clearly mixed, car prices fell, tariff-sensitive apparel rose 0.4% M-o-M, household furnishings jumped 1% M-o-M, and appliances soared 1.9% M-o-M. Services inflation fortunately keeps slowing. This report clearly bolsters the Fed’s wait-and-see stance. Elliot Eisenberg, Economist
News You Can Use:
· Mortgage Rates Predictions for the Next 6 Months: August to December 2025
· Will House Prices Decline Nationally in 2025?
· Looking to buy a home? Zillow says the market is better than it’s been for years
· Lock-in effect keeps homeowners from selling despite lower rates
· 1 in 4 Homeowners Are Skipping Insurance Claims
· Lot Values Trend Higher in 2024
· Residential Remodelers Outnumber Single-family Builders in the U.S.
· Program to Prevent Veteran Home Foreclosures Has Been Revived
· Mortgage Applications Today: Home Loan Demand Falls by 10% After Mortgage Interest Rates Rise
*Communication is intended for Industry Professionals only and not intended for Consumer Distribution
Interest rate and annual percentage rate(APR) are based on current market conditions as of 07/17/2025, are for informational purposes only, are subject to change without notice and may be subject to pricing add-ons related to property type, loan amount, loan-to-value, credit score and other variables. Estimated closing costs used in the APR calculation are assumed to be paid by the borrower at closing. If the closing costs are financed, the loan, APR and payment amounts will be higher. Contact us for details. Additional loan programs may be available. Accuracy is not guaranteed, and all products may not be available in all borrower's geographical areas and are based on their individual situation. This is not a credit decision or a commitment to lend. actual interest rate, APR, and payment may vary based on the specific terms of the loan selected, verification of information, your credit history, the location and type of property, and other factors as determined by Prosperity Home Mortgage, LLC. Not available in all states. Rate is as of 07/17/2025 and is subject to change at any time without notice. Opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other views contained in this document are those of Freddie Mac’s economists and other researchers, do not necessarily represent the views of Freddie Mac or its management, and should not be construed as indicating Freddie Mac’s business prospects or expected results. Although the authors attempt to provide reliable, useful information, they do not guarantee that the information or other content in this document is accurate, current, or suitable for any particular purpose. All content is subject to change without notice. All content is provided on an “as is” basis, with no warranties of any kind whatsoever. Information from this document may be used with proper attribution.
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