This Market Update is written by our Capital Market specialists each week to bring you insight into what's happening in the market and how it may affect mortgage rates and real estate trends.
Market Commentary:
Mortgage rates dipped early in the week to their lowest point since 2022, then stabilized and inched slightly upward by January 22nd. Markets continue to expect multiple Fed rate cuts later in 2026, potentially bringing the fed funds rate down from 5.0% to 3.0% by year‑end. The week was driven mostly by Treasury yield movements and mortgage‑market sentiment.
Most economists are expecting the Federal Reserve to hold key interest rates steady, according to a Wednesday survey. A Reuters poll found that 58 percent of surveyed economists predict no change this quarter, while the majority expect two cuts later this year.
FedWatch: Target rate (in bps) possibilities, according to the CME Group (as of 01/22/2026 – 12:00 PM EST):
Awesome Arrow:
Cars have a small arrow on the dashboard telling drivers which side of the car the gas tank is on. That’s the Moylan Arrow, named after Ford engineer Jim Moylan, who died last month at 80. He pitched his idea in 4/86. In 11/86 he was told it was great, and the first Arrow appeared in model year 1989. 2.5years from idea to implementation. Thanks, Jim! - Elliot Eisenberg, Economist
News You Can Use:
· NAR Pending Home Sales Report Shows 9.3% Decrease in December
· Mortgage refinances surged again, but rates are now suddenly jumping higher
· Family offices could be hit in Trump ban on investors buying homes
· What Trump's Move to Restrict Big Investor's Home Purchases Means | TIME
· Buyer Leverage Surges As Housing Market Hits Record Imbalance – NMP
· Mortgage Rates Whipsaw, but Stay Near 2025 Lows - Zillow Research
· Homebuying and Selling Activity Show Signs of Life Amid Lower Mortgage Rates
· US November PCE inflation 2.8% vs 2.7% expected | investingLive
*Communication is intended for Industry Professionals only and not intended for Consumer Distribution
Interest rate and annual percentage rate (APR) are based on current market conditions as of 01/22/2026, are for informational purposes only, are subject to change without notice and may be subject to pricing add-ons related to property type, loan amount, loan-to-value, credit score and other variables. Estimated closing costs used in the APR calculation are assumed to be paid by the borrower at closing. If the closing costs are financed, the loan, APR and payment amounts will be higher. Contact us for details. Additional loan programs may be available. Accuracy is not guaranteed, and all products may not be available in all borrower's geographical areas and are based on their individual situation. This is not a credit decision or a commitment to lend. Actual interest rate, APR, and payment may vary based on the specific terms of the loan selected, verification of information, your credit history, the location and type of property, and other factors as determined by Prosperity Home Mortgage, LLC. Not available in all states. Rate is as of 01/22/2026 and is subject to change at any time without notice. Opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other views contained in this document are those of Freddie Mac’s economists and other researchers, do not necessarily represent the views of Freddie Mac or its management, and should not be construed as indicating Freddie Mac’s business prospects or expected results. Although the authors attempt to provide reliable, useful information, they do not guarantee that the information or other content in this document is accurate, current, or suitable for any particular purpose. All content is subject to change without notice. All content is provided on an “as is” basis, with no warranties of any kind whatsoever. Information from this document may be used with proper attribution.
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